2025 BTC Blueprint: Correction Patterns Every Investor Must Know in 2025

2025 is a post-halving year. A new market cycle is underway. That means BTC is in price exploration mode. You also call is “parabolic phase”. You are waiting to see those long green candles. Every moron is making money. And we all feel like geniuses.

However, understanding how corrections work in this last phase is key to making sound investment decisions. And staying sane – in this game.

Post-halving

rallies have in average 3 Big Corrections

History repeats. Around 5 month after the halving-event, we had our 1^st price rally from early October 2024. Then we had a 1^st correction that started on 18^Th December. We are currently in a retest phase that has formed a bull flag. History suggests, we soon transition from a correction- and retest phase to the next phase of the post halving year rally.

If you panicked, or are still worried, you’re spending too much time on Crypto Twitter, listening to random guys whose memes are down 95%. Please let me help you zoom out and stay objective based on facts.

Major corrections during price exploration happen in average 3 times post halving. Here’s how many we’ve seen in past cycles:

• 2013-2016 cycle: Post halving price exploration phase had 2 corrections (-75% and -25%)

• 2017-2020 cycle: Post-halving price exploration phase had 4 corrections (mostly -30% to -40%)

• 2021-2024 cycle: Post-halving price exploration phase had 3 corrections (-31%, -55%, and -25%)

• 2024-2025 Post-halving price exploration phase had already its 1st correction (18^th December 2024 onwards)

Look at the 2 corrections in 2013:

The first correction in 2013 was unusually 13 weeks long and -75% deep. The second was -25% deep and 5 weeks long. History repeats.

Look at the 2 corrections in 2017:

Starting with the first post-halving 2017 rally:

The first Correction was 3 weeks long and -34% deep.

The second Correction lasted 5 weeks and was -38% deep and

The third Correction lasted 2-3 weeks and was -40% deep.

And the fourth Price Discovery Correction lasted only 1 week and was -29% deep.

2017 is the only post-halving year where we saw 4 Price Explore new heights with 4 Corrections. So it is risky to DCA during later corrections in the parabolic phase.

Since these corrections don’t happen often, there aren’t many chances to accumulate at low prices. Every cycle presents only a handful of good buying opportunities, and the further into price exploration, the fewer there are.

We are still in a post-correction retest phase. The support level at 93,200 today is retested over weeks to form a bull flag. Accumulating BTC and Alts is still possible at reasonable entry now before the expected next move up. Meanwhile

Risk-Reward Becomes Less Favorable with Each Correction

The first correction tends to offer the best opportunity for buying, with a high probability of recovery. The second correction is still worth considering, but the risk-reward ratio becomes less favorable.

By the time the third or fourth correction occurs—if they happen at all—the market becomes riskier. At this stage, the chance of entering a bear market increases. The worst mistake is assuming that every pullback will bounce back when, in reality, later-stage corrections often lead to prolonged downturns.

How Deep and Long Are Corrections?

Image Placeholder: Chart showing correction depth and duration

Each price exploration correction tends to last between 1 and 5 weeks, with 3 weeks being the historical average. Some past examples:

• 2013: A deep -75% drop lasted 13 weeks, while another correction of -25% lasted 5 weeks.

• 2017: Four corrections ranged from -29% to -40%, lasting between 1 to 5 weeks.

• 2021: The largest correction was -55% over 11 weeks, with recovery signals forming in week 15.

Although a -75% drop like in 2013 is unlikely today, large corrections can still happen. The -55% retracement in 2021 showed that even in modern cycles, sharp declines are possible. Our recent first correction was around 16% deep.

Weeks 6-8: The “First Correction Window” was on time

A recurring pattern in price exploration is that Weeks 6 to 8 tend to bring always corrections. This has been true across multiple cycles and again this time:

• 2017: One of the four corrections occurred in this window.

• 2021: A -16% dip happened in Week 6, lasting only a week. And another short 8% dip in week 8.

• Current cycle: The most recent -16% drop started in week 6 again and lasted three weeks—longer than 2021’s dip but still within historical norms. Now we are coming from a recovery to retest the support level and expect to transition to the next phase of price exploration.

So the recent correction marks the first major pullback of this cycle.

Late-Cycle Corrections Are Shallower

Corrections near the end of price exploration tend to be less severe:

• 2013’s final correction: -25% over 5 weeks

• 2017’s final correction: -29% over 1 week

• 2021’s final correction: -25% over 3 weeks

These later-stage pullbacks typically settle around -25%, lasting a shorter time than early-cycle corrections.

A bullflag has formed – What’s next?

This first -16% correction over three weeks fits within historical patterns in terms of timing (week 6-8). While its depth was less than previous cycles, its timing and structure suggest it functioned as a true price correction rather than a minor dip. Meanwhile an important support level at 93.200 has build. Now a bull flag has formed – signaling the next move up. History is repeating itself on schedule again this cycle.

Block out the noise on X: “The top is in,” “Trump tariffs are bearish,” “The inflation data came in bearish,” “blah blah blah”.

It is all noise – We will look at these macro economic indicators in an our upcoming newsletter. For now, the BTC cycle looks like we transition to the next upside phase.

However, historically, we would expect now a next move to the upside and around two more major price exploration corrections, typically ranging between -25% and -40%. If this cycle follows past trends, investors should be prepared for more volatility in 2025.

For now we are on track for further upside in 2025. Everything else is noise.

Remember: Fear is expensive. Information is free. Understanding is priceless.

Thanks for reading, guys.

NoFomo Capital.