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Bitcoin’s Retest is on – What does history suggest next?

Recovery After Correction – 3 historic patterns to know

February 15, 2025

Welcome to the NoFomo Capital Newsletter, your go-to resource for cutting-edge crypto research and level-headed market analysis to navigate the complexities of the crypto market. We help investors stay sane with all the noise out there. We help you see clear and zoom out to the big picture so you don’t fumble your bags.

Bitcoin's Monthly Bull Flag

Yesterday we mentioned the bull flag that has formed. The base of the market structure is in line with the bull flag.

Please block out the noise on CT (crypto twitter) and look at this healthy setup. We can expect the second move of the post-halving rally in time.

Bitcoin has successfully pulled back a few times into the Monthly Bull Flag top. It successfully retested support levels in a channel that formed around 93.000 and 96.000 over weeks.

Of course, the retest was a volatile one, producing long downsides wick in the process. The blood of leverage traders was spilled on 13th January and 3rd February.

CT (Crypto Twitter) calls it the largest liquidation event in history. To give perspective, it was not the most volatile move of BTC ever. It was actually a shallow dip in context of history. The whole recent correction was only -16%. Historically, we tend to see 30-55% pullbacks in the current phase of the cycle.

Yesterday’s newsletter told you about the “Correction Patterns Every Investor Must Know in 2025.” If you missed it. Check it out here.

Historically, we tend to see much deeper corrections that follow a pattern in the post-halving parabolic phase of the cycle. That means now. However, leverage trading volume keeps growing exponentially over the last years. So even shallow corrections in context of history (like the recent), produce now all-time-high leverage-trade liquidation volumes.

Even though this all looks bullish asf: For the majority of you guys, this is not the time to trade with leverage. History and charts are clear. If you’re still not getting it, this one’s for you, market clowns:

❝

Patience! Just a few months, and everything will fall into place. Don’t be reckless. Don’t be stupid. By the end of this parabolic phase, anyone who didn’t fumble and overtrades will be deep in the green. We’ll all look like geniuses.Ignore the noise on Crypto Twitter. Stay sane. Keep it simple.
🚫 Avoid high leverage

(Yes, the next down-side wick will come and kill you. And you will watch like a cry-baby while everyone else rides their boring spot wallets to the moon by end of the year)
🚫 No aping your life savings into shiny lowcaps

(No, you are not smarter than everyone else)

Stay sane. Stay in the game. Play it smart, and let time do the work.

Key Takeaways from Bitcoin’s Downside Wick:

  1. The latest downside wick marks the third consecutive Monthly downside wick at a Higher Low.

  2. It reinforces the December and January candle-bodied lows as critical Monthly support levels.

  3. The Monthly Bull Flag’s Bottom and Top are both acting as strong support, with Bitcoin successfully retesting the Bull Flag Top (~$96,500) to confirm its breakout. If price stability above this level continues, technical trend continuation should follow.

Bitcoin has successfully retested the Monthly Bull Flag Top as support, confirming its breakout from the pattern.

For the uptrend to continue, price stability above the Bull Flag Top (~$96,500) remains crucial. If Bitcoin holds this level, further trend continuation is likely.

Bitcoin’s Weekly Triangle & Market Consolidation:

Bitcoin remains within a well-defined triangular market structure that originated as a daily pattern in December and has since expanded to the Weekly timeframe.

Price continues to consolidate within this pattern, rejecting from the Lower High resistance (with upside wicks extending beyond it) and rebounding from the Higher Low support (with downside wicks forming below).

If BTC continues to compresses into this triangle, a decisive move would be imminent in February or latest March. For confirmation of further upside, Bitcoin needs a Weekly close above the diagonal resistance of this structure.

A successful breakout would validate the post-breakout momentum of the Monthly Bull Flag.

February’s Historical Strength in Post-Halving Years:

February has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, with an average return of approximately +15%. In previous Post-Halving years (2013, 2017, 2021), BTC has delivered double-digit gains in February. Given these patterns, 2025 is positioned to follow suit.

History doesn’t always repeat exactly, but it often rhymes. February in post-halving years has historically been very bullish, with strong upside moves more often than not. If this pattern holds, we could see major gains this month.

But even if Bitcoin doesn’t explode in February as expected, the bigger picture remains bullish. Looking at quarterly trends in post-halving years, Q1 tends to be strong. In 2017, another post-halving year, the big move didn’t happen until Q2.

There is always the possibility the major breakout you are waiting for is delayed, but the probability of a bullish Q1 remains high based on historical data. Keep this in mind as we move through February and beyond.

Take a macro view. Don’t listen to fearmongers on CT who fumbled their bags. Please be impatient. Stay away from major leverage during this phase. Major in the majors.

Stay sane.

NoFomo Capital